2025-04-30 28HSE 编辑部
Morgan Stanley analysts have projected a further 10 percent decline in Hong Kong's property prices for the year 2024, suggesting a reversion to levels last seen in 2016. This comes on the heels of an estimated 5 percent decrease in the previous year.
The financial institution indicated that upcoming U.S. interest rate reductions may not immediately alleviate the high mortgage interest rates that Hong Kong's home buyers currently face. The local property market is expected to take time to feel the benefits of these cuts.
A significant backlog of 20,000 unsold housing units was recorded in the third quarter of the previous year, representing a 20-year peak and highlighting the ongoing lackluster market sentiment.
Morgan Stanley also anticipates a hike of approximately 100 basis points in Hong Kong interbank offered rates, which could further strain companies carrying substantial debt, especially those sensitive to interest rate fluctuations.
In light of these forecasts, it was noted that real estate giants such as Sino Land (0083), CK Asset (1113), and Swire Properties (1972), which boast robust financial positions, are likely to increase their dividend payouts.
According to real estate advisory firm Jones Lang LaSalle, Hong Kong's housing market is expected to experience a phase of relative surplus from 2024 to 2027. This outlook is informed by an analysis of the past two decades, which saw an average annual sale of 16,400 new homes.
These insights were shared amidst remarks from Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po, who acknowledged a short-to-medium-term correction in the property market but maintained an optimistic stance for the future.
In related news, Link Real Estate Investment Trust (0823) has advocated for inclusion in the Connect program to improve asset allocation options for Mainland Chinese investors. This push comes as REITs have shown signs of recovery, spurred by the anticipation of interest rate cuts.
A resurgence in Hong Kong's retail property sector is on the horizon, as predicted by Colliers, a real estate investment firm. Additionally, the rebound of Singaporean REITs adds to Link's confident perspective on the Asia-Pacific REIT markets.
Lastly, Cushman & Wakefield anticipate a 5 percent increase in property transactions in the Greater Bay Area, following the relaxation of housing control measures.
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