Sentiment in the local property market continues to improve, with the Eva Property Index (EPI) rising for six consecutive weeks. The latest reading stands at 111.91 points, a slight week-on-week increase of 0.1%, marking the third consecutive week the index has remained above the low of 110.92 points recorded prior to the withdrawal of property cooling measures. While the index has accumulated a year-to-date rise of 4.66%, it remains approximately 23.22% below the historical high of 145.76 set in 2021; however, this reflects a continuous restoration of market confidence. Market analysts point out that the sector has benefited from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in late October and the simultaneous reduction of the Prime Rate (P) by Hong Kong banks, effectively lowering the cost of homeownership. Coupled with market expectations of another rate cut in December and improving Sino-US relations, these multiple positive factors are driving transaction volumes and supporting a positive market trend.
The leasing market is similarly warming up. The latest Eva Rental Index (ERI) reported 116.72 points, a week-on-week rebound of 0.31%, edging closer to this year's high of 117.01 points. District-based rental indices showed a "three up, one down" pattern. The upward momentum is primarily attributed to the government's aggressive talent acquisition efforts in the Quality Migrant Admission Scheme, with 220,000 professionals and their dependents having arrived in Hong Kong to date—far exceeding the original three-year target of 105,000. Housing demand generated by these newcomers, combined with strong local rigid demand for rentals, is driving rents steadily upward. In the short term, the rental index is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 116 and 120 points, with a potential to retest the August 2019 high of 118.54 points.
District Home Prices: Mixed Performance with Hong Kong Island Leading the Charge
This week, district-based home price indices presented a "two up, two down" scenario. Hong Kong Island recorded the most robust growth, closing at 100.37 points, up 0.96% week-on-week. This marks six consecutive weeks of gains and the first time the index has reclaimed the 100-point level since early August 2016. The rally is believed to be linked to the continued absorption of unsold primary inventory in the district. It is found that unsold primary inventory on Hong Kong Island currently stands at 3,038 units, a decrease of approximately 488 units (13.8%) compared to January.
The New Territories East also performed well, reporting 113.02 points, up 0.24% week-on-week, also recording a six-week winning streak. Conversely, Kowloon reported 109.86 points, down 1.20%, ending a three-week rising streak; New Territories West reported 115.06 points, down 1.59%, similarly reversing a three-week upward trend.
In the New Territories East, the first batch of units at Nexus Grand sold out completely. Coupled with ideal sales of remaining stock at Grand Seasons in LOHAS Park, sentiment in the district has significantly improved, restoring buyer confidence. Furthermore, Le Mont Phase 3 released a new price list with a discounted average price per square foot 1.85% to 3.74% higher than the project's Phase 1 and 2. This reflects the developer's confidence in the future market, providing support for steady price appreciation.
In the New Territories West, Gold Coast Bay-The Reserve in Tuen Mun launched 152 units over the past weekend (15th-16th). Only 17 units were sold, accounting for approximately 11% of the total launch. The sluggish sales performance has dragged down secondary home price performance within the district.
In Kowloon, the second round of Cullinan Sky Phase 2 saw additional units launched at increased prices, yet they still sold out completely. While this reflects attractive pricing, it has put short-term pressure on the secondary market in the same district, forcing owners to cut prices to offload stock. The situation at ONE PARK PLACE is similar; after a second round of launches with price hikes, the discounted average price remained lower than comparable new projects in the area. This has similarly pressured the secondary market, compelling owners to reduce prices to remain competitive. Additionally, sales at KT Marina over the weekend were average, but a slight increase in overall inventory has also put pressure on district property prices.
Primary Inventory Falls for 10 Straight Months to 2.5-Year Low
It is shown that primary inventory in Hong Kong continues to decline. In November, the cumulative inventory across Hong Kong was recorded at approximately 19,060 units, a decrease of 568 units (or about 2.9%) from October's 19,628 units. This marks the 10th consecutive month of decline, with a cumulative reduction of 4,061 units (or 17.6%), hitting a new low since June 2023.
Looking ahead, the market generally believes that property market sentiment will continue to improve. Benefiting from last month's rate cut, the anticipation of further rate cuts next month, and warming Sino-US relations, the desire of buyers and enterprises to enter the market has strengthened. After breaking through the pre-withdrawal cooling measure low of 110.92 points, the Eva Property Index (EPI) is expected to hover between 107 and 114 points. In the short term, home prices are expected to maintain a steady upward trend, with the estimated full-year cumulative rise falling between 5% and 6%.
Rental Index Rebounds to 116.72 Points; Rigid Demand to Support Challenge of Historical Highs
Benefiting from the Quality Migrant Admission Scheme and strong rigid demand for leasing, the latest weekly Eva Rental Index (ERI) reversed last week's decline to report 116.72 points, a week-on-week increase of 0.31%, continuing its march toward the year's high of 117.01 points. Compared to the historical high of 118.54 points in early August 2019, the difference is only 1.82 points (approximately 1.54%). The cumulative year-to-date rise stands at 2.68%.
Regarding district rental indices, a "three up, one down" pattern emerged this week. New Territories East reported 120.2 points, up 1.53%, reversing last week's fall and reflecting decent leasing absorption. Hong Kong Island reported 124.23 points, up 1.35%, ending a two-week decline. Kowloon reported 119.67 points, up 0.77%, also reversing a decline. Conversely, New Territories West reported 137.11 points, down 1.03%. Overall, while there is a slight adjustment in rental trends, rigid demand remains intact.
Looking ahead, the market anticipates further interest rate cuts in December. With the emergence of a "cheaper to buy than rent" scenario, the short-term growth rate of rents may slow slightly as some tenants turn to purchasing. However, with the talent importation schemes sustaining strong rigid demand, rental demand is expected to remain elevated, with rental levels hovering at highs. It is forecast that the rental index will fluctuate between 116 and 120 points in the next two months, with a chance to break the historical high of 118.54 points.
These figures reflect market conditions from November 14 to November 20, 2025.
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