Retracing early January, the latest Eva Property Index (EPI) experienced a sharp correction from 114.79 points to 113.46 points—a decline of 1.16%—before consolidating within a narrow range of 113.36 to 113.59 points. This week, the index rebounded significantly from 113.59 points to 114.69 points, reflecting that the market has successfully undergone a brief adjustment and restarted its upward trajectory. Concurrently, indices across all four major districts performed well, indicating that the upward trend has broadened from specific pockets to the wider market, with confidence fully returning to both the primary and secondary sectors.
Summarizing this week’s market conditions, robust sales in the primary market were the key driving force. Inventory of new developments decreased by nearly 5% month-on-month, reflecting an accelerated inflow of capital. This positive sentiment has transmitted to the secondary market, driving gains across all four district indices. The Kowloon district performed most notably, rising 1.06% week-on-week, as leftover stock in projects such as ONE PARK PLACE, Uptown East, and KT Marina was successively absorbed. Consequently, the developer of ONE PARK PLACE raised prices significantly by approximately 9% in the new price list. The New Territories East (NT East) district was equally competitive; the second round of sales for SIERRA SEA saw over 300 units sold out, followed immediately by a price hike of nearly 4% for additional units. Coupled with ideal sales in the Villa Garda series, the district recorded its third consecutive weekly rise. The Hong Kong Island district benefited from active trading at the Headland Residences, marking five consecutive weeks of gains, while the New Territories West (NT West) district also performed moderately well, driven by the Grand Mayfair series. Looking ahead to the post-Lunar New Year period, focal projects such as LOHAS Park Phase 13 and The Southside are poised for launch. Coupled with the increasingly prevalent phenomenon where "buying is cheaper than renting," the index is expected to hover between 110 and 116 points in the short term, with a stable and positive outlook.
The rental market sentiment softened slightly, with the weekly Eva Rental Index (ERI) reported at 116.51 points, a micro-decrease of 0.13% week-on-week. All districts faced pressure, with Hong Kong Island and NT West showing weaker trends, both falling for four consecutive weeks. Although falling interest rates have led to an increase in cases where buying is more affordable than renting—potentially prompting some tenants to switch to purchasing and diverting rental demand—new housing demand remains supported by various talent importation schemes and the relaxation of the non-local student quota to 40%. The index is expected to hover between 116 and 120 points in the short term. After digesting this phase, it is projected to resume its upward track, with the potential to break the historical peak of 118.54 points within the next two months, setting a new record high.
Strong Primary Sales Boost Secondary Market; Prices Rise Across Four Districts; Remaining Inventory Drops Nearly 5% Month-on-Month
Benefiting from the robust sales in the primary market stimulating the secondary sector, combined with a decline in new development inventory, the district property price indices extended last week’s upward trend, with all four districts reporting gains. Notably, Kowloon, Hong Kong Island, and NT East recorded significant increases, marking two, three, and five consecutive weeks of growth, respectively. According to data from 28Hse, as of February 1, the inventory of unsold primary units stood at 16,742, a decrease of 861 units (approximately 4.89%) from 17,603 units at the beginning of the year. This reflects abundant market liquidity and an accelerated pace in absorbing new stock.
Kowloon District showed the most significant performance, with the latest index at 111.24 points, up 1.06% week-on-week, rising for two consecutive weeks. While sales at Grand Lu were stable, multiple new projects in the district—such as ONE PARK PLACE, Uptown East, KT Marina, the Double Coast series, and The Pavilia Forest series—recorded successive transactions for remaining units, significantly activating market sentiment. Seeing this momentum, the developer launched Price List No. 5 for ONE PARK PLACE with a discounted average price per square foot of $17,347, a significant increase of about 9% compared to the $15,908 in Price List No. 4, demonstrating the developer's full confidence in the district's future market. Strong absorption in the primary market has also bolstered the confidence of secondary homeowners, who have generally raised asking prices, further pushing up overall property prices in the district.
New Territories East also demonstrated a strong trend, with the index at 113.67 points this week, up 0.96% week-on-week, marking three consecutive weeks of gains. Carrying forward the momentum of the "sold out on day one" performance of Phase 2A, Phase 2B of the SIERRA SEA project successfully sold out all 350 units during the second round of sales on Sunday (February 1). The presence of bulk buyers indicates that the developer's strategy of "stabilizing prices to promote sales" was effective, successfully focusing purchasing power on the primary market. Capitalizing on this success, the developer released Price List No. 5 with a discounted average price per square foot of approximately $13,288, about 3.96% higher than the $12,782 in Price List No. 4, signaling optimism regarding future absorption. Additionally, ideal trading of remaining units in the Villa Garda series and the heated primary sales have led secondary homeowners to become more aggressive with asking prices, driving up property values in the district.
Hong Kong Island showed a steady trend this week, with the index latest at 106.92 points, rising 0.87% week-on-week for five consecutive weeks. Considerable transactions recorded for remaining units at the Headland Residences warmed market sentiment and strengthened buyer confidence in the district. Secondary homeowners, witnessing solid market absorption, have raised asking prices, supporting the district's property values.
New Territories West reported an index of 119.25 points this week, a slight increase of 0.03% week-on-week, recording two consecutive weeks of gains. This is believed to be driven by ideal sales of remaining units in the Grand Mayfair series, which enhanced the bargaining power of secondary homeowners, thereby pushing overall property prices upward.
Market Outlook: Inventory clearance remains the primary task for developers this year. Given recent ideal sales performances, developers have announced the launch of multiple focal projects after the Lunar New Year, including LOHAS Park Phase 13, The Southside 6B (GRANDE BLANC), CLOUDVIEW, Chester, Zendo House, and PAVILIA ROSA. This demonstrates the industry's full confidence in the market's absorption capacity. As the interest rate trajectory becomes clearer and banks actively roll out various mortgage incentives, coupled with the increasingly common "cheaper to buy than rent" phenomenon across districts, the Eva Property Index (EPI) is expected to hover between 110 and 116 points in the short term, with the overall trend poised for steady growth.
Rental Index Dips 0.13% Week-on-Week; All Districts Under Pressure; Market Capable of Breaking Peaks Later
Entering early February, the atmosphere in the Hong Kong rental market has taken a breather. The Eva Rental Index (ERI) reported 116.51 points this week, falling 0.13% week-on-week, halting earlier gains. Reviewing January's performance, the index climbed from 116.03 points at the start of the month to 116.95 points before fluctuating within a narrow range. Although the index softened slightly this week, it has still recorded a cumulative increase of 0.41% year-to-date. The current level is only 1.71% below the historical high of 118.54 points recorded in August 2019.
District data shows that rents across all four districts softened this week. Hong Kong Island and NT West continued their weak trends, both falling for four consecutive weeks. Hong Kong Island saw the sharpest decline, reporting 121.44 points, down 1.78% week-on-week; NT West reported 133.36 points, down 1.08% week-on-week. The lackluster performance of these two districts was the main factor dragging down the broader market. Additionally, NT East and Kowloon turned from gains to losses: NT East reported 120.69 points, falling 0.55% week-on-week, ending a three-week rising streak; Kowloon reported 122.35 points, dipping 0.53% week-on-week, ending last week’s upward trend.
Interest rate trends will influence the market outlook. As the direction of the US Federal Reserve's interest rates becomes clearer, Hong Kong interbank rates (HIBOR) are expected to follow suit and fall. If mortgage interest costs decrease, combined with adjusted property prices, mortgage payments for some estates may fall below rental costs. This situation may attract financially capable tenants to switch from renting to buying, diverting demand from the leasing market and slowing the pace of rental increases.
Synthesizing the above factors, the 28Hse Research Department predicts that the Eva Rental Index (ERI) will hover between 116 and 120 points in the short term. After a brief adjustment, there is an opportunity to break the historical high of 118.54 points within the next two months. In the long run, the rental trend for the full year of 2026 is expected to maintain steady growth, with an estimated annual increase of between 2% and 4%.
The above indices reflect market conditions from January 30, 2026, to February 05, 2026.
