In the final week of July, the Eva Property Index (EPI) stood at 121.82 points, rising by 0.66% week-on-week. This ended a three-week consecutive decline and marked the fifth consecutive week the index has stabilized at the 121-point level. However, the index remains approximately 16.42% below its historical peak of 145.76 points recorded in August 2021.
Recently, secondary property price trends across different districts have diverged, driven by primary market sales performances. The sluggish response in the first two rounds of sales at the new project La Mirabelle II in New Territories East prompted purchasing power to flow back into the secondary market, driving up secondary home prices in the district. Conversely, the first round of sales at the new project Garden Regency in New Territories West was nearly sold out, absorbing substantial purchasing power within the district and putting short-term pressure on local secondary home prices.
Sub-index performances across districts were mixed, recording two gains and two declines. Rents in Hong Kong Island and New Territories East recorded increases, primarily driven by an influx of mainland students leasing properties at rates above the estates' average unit rents. Entering the traditional peak leasing season in August, market demand for rental properties remains robust. Amidst a persistently tight supply of rental stock, the overall rental trend is expected to continue its steady upward trajectory.
In the leasing market, overall performance remained consistently stable. The latest Eva Rental Index (ERI) stood at 120.93 points, edging up 0.01% week-on-week and maintaining the 120-point level for five consecutive weeks. The market anticipates that the index is poised to breach the 121-point mark in the short term, continuing to set new record highs.
Regional Property Prices Record Two Gains and Two Drops; New Territories East Surges Over 2%
The regional property price indices showed mixed performance this week, recording two gains and two drops. New Territories East and Hong Kong Island ended their two-week losing streak and two-week winning streak respectively, newly reported at 121.34 and 110.52 points, representing week-on-week increases of 2.31% and 0.13%. Conversely, Kowloon and New Territories West both halted their upward momentum from last week, reporting at 118.59 and 123.8 points, down 0.19% and 1.13% week-on-week respectively. Analysts suggest that while overall transaction volume in the primary market remained stable this week, sales performances of new projects varied across districts. In certain areas, prospective buyers who failed to purchase new flats flowed back into the secondary market. This not only boosted transaction volumes but also strengthened the bargaining power of owners, thereby driving up secondary property prices.
The significant rise in New Territories East property prices this week was primarily due to the lackluster sales performance in the first two rounds of certain new projects in the district. Taking La Mirabelle II as an example, the first two rounds launched 257 and 276 units respectively, but only sold 107 and 25 units, accounting for approximately 41.63% and 9.06% of the units offered. Meanwhile, La Mirabelle I only sold 4 units, bringing the total transactions for the entire series to 136 so far. Data shows that the first price list of La Mirabelle II, launched in mid-July, had an average discounted price of about $15,770 per square foot, which was approximately 1.17% to 11.15% higher than that of La Mirabelle I and the SEASONS series, pricing it above the district's average level. The slowdown in the clearance of primary market unsold stock prompted some purchasing power to return to the secondary market. Driven by this demand, secondary market owners generally narrowed their room for negotiation, propelling property prices upward in the district.
Looking ahead at the market outlook for New Territories East, PARK SILICON, developed by Wheelock Properties, has recently uploaded its sales brochure. The two phases will provide a total of 781 units, and it is expected that the first price list and sales arrangements will be announced in the short term. The developer revealed that the project has recorded over 6,000 inquiries to date. The customer base covers cross-border tech professionals, mainland investors, local families, and upgraders within the same district, reflecting that there is still a certain level of market demand for the district's future market.
Regarding Hong Kong Island, property prices recorded a slight increase. The district has recently lacked new large-scale residential projects, and primary market transactions were mainly supported by sporadic sales in projects such as the Headland Residences, La Montagne Phase 4B, and PORTO. Due to limited choices in the primary market, many prospective buyers turned to the secondary market to hunt for bargains, accelerating the pace of transactions and providing support for property prices in the district.
In contrast, Kowloon's secondary property prices were under pressure due to the stable sales of unsold primary stock. Transactions in the district were primarily supported by projects such as Cullinan Sky Phase 2, MIAMI QUAY I, The Harmonie, Madera Garden, Highwood Phase 2, and The Pavilia Forest series, with each project recording between 4 and 10 transactions. In addition, The Aperture released an additional 21 units in late July at an average discounted price of $22,987 per square foot, with actual price reductions of approximately 6.9% to 8.6% for individual units. The market-aligned pricing of primary projects successfully attracted buyers, forcing secondary owners to widen their price cuts to enhance the competitiveness of their properties, thereby driving overall prices downward.
In terms of secondary transactions, data from Hong Kong Property Services and Midland Realty showed that weekend viewing appointments at the four and seven major indicator housing estates in Kowloon recorded 177 and 179 groups respectively, representing week-on-week declines of 1.12% and 2.72%. This reflects a weakening desire among buyers to enter the market, and the loss of prospective customers has further dragged down property prices.
The property price trend in New Territories West was similarly dominated by the primary market. The 118 units offered in the second round of sales at the new project, Garden Regency, were completely sold out. Together with 2 units sold via tender, a total of 120 units were sold, demonstrating strong market absorption. The developer subsequently released additional units at original prices, with the per-square-foot price of individual units adjusted upward by a marginal 0.38%, and is expected to maintain sales momentum through a stable pricing strategy. Meanwhile, the Grand Mayfair series also recorded 4 transactions of unsold stock. The robust sentiment in the primary market absorbed a significant amount of purchasing power, forcing secondary owners to reduce prices to secure sales and putting short-term pressure on property prices.
Regarding viewing volumes, Midland Realty data indicated that weekend viewing appointments at the two major indicator estates in New Territories West stood at 99 groups, a week-on-week decrease of 3.88%. Fleming Lee, Associate Sales Director of Centaline Property Agency Limited, pointed out that late July to early August is traditionally a peak season for travel. The reduction in prospective viewers directly led to a contraction in transactions, further weakening the absorption capacity of the secondary market and leaving property prices in the district devoid of upward momentum.
Looking ahead at the overall market outlook, macroeconomic and policy factors remain fraught with challenges. Although the US Federal Reserve recently kept interest rates unchanged, global inflation (particularly in the US) remains persistently high due to the situation in the Middle East, leading to rising market expectations of future rate hikes. On the other hand, mainland China's recent tightening of capital outflows has slowed the pace of some mainland buyers purchasing properties in Hong Kong, resulting in a decrease in the number of bulk purchasers in the primary market. Furthermore, mainland China recently required tax residents to pay a 20% personal income tax on their global offshore income. Although this policy primarily targets the insurance sector, it inevitably affects the overall investment sentiment, dampening purchasing power in both the primary and secondary markets.
Alex Cheung, Data Researcher at 28Hse, maintained his previous forecast, estimating that the EPI will fluctuate between 112 and 124 points in the short term. The overall property market performance in the second half of the year is expected to trend towards stability or a slight decline, with the specific trajectory remaining dependent on the actual impact of the aforementioned internal and external policy and economic factors on the Hong Kong property market.
Rental Index Edges Up 0.01% for a Second Consecutive Week, Maintaining 120-Point Level for Five Weeks
The latest ERI stands at 120.93 points, edging up 0.01% week-on-week. This marks a two-week consecutive rise and the fifth consecutive week maintaining the 120-point level, reflecting stable market demand during the summer peak leasing season. Compared to the historical second-highest peak of 118.54 points recorded in early August 2019, the current index is approximately 2.02% higher. Analysts indicate that, benefiting from peak season leasing demand and tight rental supply, the rental trend is expected to remain stable with an upward trajectory.
The four major districts exhibited divergent trends, with the sub-indices recording two increases and two decreases. Hong Kong Island saw the most significant growth, reporting 131.52 points with a 1.83% week-on-week increase, rising for two consecutive weeks. New Territories East reported 124.76 points, up slightly by 0.15% week-on-week, marking a three-week consecutive rise. Conversely, New Territories West reported 136.42 points, edging down 0.13% week-on-week and falling for three consecutive weeks. Kowloon reported 124.15 points, dropping 1.05% week-on-week and halting its previous upward momentum.
Overall, Hong Kong Island and New Territories East recorded multiple transactions above their respective estates' average per-square-foot rents, driving the indices upward in these districts. Meanwhile, New Territories West and Kowloon saw a higher volume of leasing cases below the average per-square-foot rent, putting pressure on their indices.
Market conditions on Hong Kong Island remain positive. Taking leasing cases by mainland students as an example, a high-floor Studio Unit E in Tower 1 of 63 Pokfulam, Sai Ying Pun, with a saleable area of 209 sq ft, was recently leased for HK$19,000. The rent reached HK$91 per sq ft, setting a new high for the estate and exceeding the 28Hse platform's 90-day average of HK$76 per sq ft by 19.74%. Additionally, a high-floor one-bedroom Unit J at KENNEDY 38 in Kennedy Town, with a saleable area of 288 sq ft, was leased to a mainland student for HK$26,500. The rent of HK$92 per sq ft is 8.24% higher than the average of HK$85 per sq ft for the same period. These high-priced transactions have directly elevated the district's average rental level, acting as the primary driver for the significant rise in Hong Kong Island's rental index this week.
A similar situation was observed in New Territories East. A mid-floor one-bedroom Unit A in Tower 2 of The Arles, Fo Tan, with a saleable area of 325 sq ft, was leased by a mainland family for HK$21,000 per month, translating to approximately HK$64.6 per sq ft. A high-floor three-bedroom Unit B in Block 10 of City One Shatin, with a saleable area of 451 sq ft, was also leased for HK$21,000, or about HK$47 per sq ft. According to 28Hse data, these two transactions were approximately 13.33% and 2.17% higher than the average per-square-foot rent for the same period, respectively. The continuous emergence of such above-average transactions in the district has provided support for rents in New Territories East, contributing to the index's three-week consecutive rise.
Rents in New Territories West, however, saw a decline. A high-floor two-bedroom Unit D in Tower 3, Phase 1B of NOVO LAND, Tuen Mun, with a saleable area of 404 sq ft, was leased for HK$15,000, or about HK$37 per sq ft. A high-floor three-bedroom Unit C in Block 12, Locwood Court, Phase 1 of Kingswood Villas, Tin Shui Wai, with a saleable area of 551 sq ft, was leased for HK$13,700, or approximately HK$24.9 per sq ft. These transactions were 5.13% and 4.23% lower, respectively, than the 28Hse platform's 90-day average per-square-foot rent. The higher volume of such below-market transactions recorded in the district dragged down the overall rental performance of New Territories West, causing the district's index to remain under pressure.
Lee pointed out that the rental decline in New Territories West was primarily affected by low-priced transactions in Tuen Mun, Yuen Long, and Tin Shui Wai. Some tenants prefer the more accessible Tsuen Wan district, and the abundant rental choices in the Tuen Mun-Yuen Long-Tin Shui Wai area have led to intensified competition. Furthermore, property agents have recently focused on primary market sales, such as the new project Garden Regency, relatively reducing resource allocation to the leasing market, which indirectly deprived the district's rents of upward momentum.
The rental trend in Kowloon also softened. A low-floor two-bedroom Unit 05 in Block H of Tak Bo Garden, Ngau Tau Kok, with a saleable area of 382 sq ft, was leased by a local family for HK$17,000, or about HK$45 per sq ft. A mid-floor two-bedroom Unit F in Tower 3 of Banyan Garden, Cheung Sha Wan, with a saleable area of 477 sq ft, was leased for HK$20,800, or approximately HK$43.6 per sq ft. Both transactions were slightly below the 28Hse 90-day average per-square-foot rents of HK$46 and HK$45, respectively. The higher proportion of such slightly below-average cases in Kowloon weakened the district's rental support, ending its upward trend and resulting in a decline.
Entering August, local leasing activity is expected to remain active. Driven by the housing demand from mainland students and incoming professionals, market rental stock continues to be absorbed. With the ongoing shortage of supply, per-square-foot rents in certain estates are expected to test new highs again.
Cheung maintains his previous forecast, estimating that the ERI will fluctuate between 114 and 124 points in the short term. Based on robust actual housing demand and inventory shortages, full-year rents are projected to record an increase of 2% to 4%, with the index poised to further break through its previous highs.
The above indices reflect market conditions from July 24, 2026, to July 30, 2026.
