Entering late January 2026, sentiment in the Hong Kong property market continues to improve, with market expectations pointing towards a rise in both volume and price for the year. However, the current focus remains highly concentrated on the primary market. Developers, aiming to clear inventory, have universally adopted strategies of "stable pricing for rapid turnover" or pricing close to market rates to aggressively capture market share, successfully absorbing significant purchasing power. Affected by this competition from the primary sector, the latest Eva Property Index (EPI) is reported at 113.36 points, a week-on-week decrease of 0.1%, fluctuating within a narrow range. The four major sub-district indices recorded two increases and two decreases, reflecting that the pace of market recovery is still dictated by primary supply, resulting in mixed development.
Regarding regional performance, Hong Kong Island and New Territories East showed resilience, recording gains. Hong Kong Island, lacking new focal projects, relied on remaining inventory from Deep Water Pavilia II and UPPER CENTRAL, which strengthened the bargaining power of secondary market owners. New Territories East benefited from the heated sales of the large-scale new project SIERRA SEA, where Phase 2A sold out quickly over two rounds. The developer subsequently raised prices and launched Phase 2B to maintain momentum. Robust demand has invigorated the property market, driving sellers to hike asking prices. Conversely, Kowloon and New Territories West faced pressure. Affected by multiple inventory projects launching at competitive market prices—such as ONE PARK PLACE, The Henley series, and the Grand Mayfair series—secondary owners were forced to widen negotiation margins to compete, suppressing property prices in these areas. Looking ahead, it is anticipated that developers will maintain aggressive pricing strategies, and property prices are expected to fluctuate between 110 and 116 points in the short term.
In the rental market, performance softened due to seasonal factors. The latest Eva Rental Index (ERI) stands at 116.5 points, down 0.37% week-on-week, marking a two-week decline, with the four districts showing three falls and one rise. Analysis indicates that January is traditionally a low season for leasing, leading to corrections in New Territories West, Kowloon, and Hong Kong Island. However, the current rental level is only 1.72% below the historical peak of 118.54 points recorded in August 2019, indicating that the overall trend remains high. The market expects the traditional peak leasing season to begin after the Lunar New Year. Coupled with the government’s promotion of the "Study in Hong Kong" brand and various talent schemes introducing new population inflows, substantial housing demand is expected to provide strong momentum for rents to challenge historical highs.
Mixed Market Development: New Projects Revive New Territories East While Kowloon and New Territories West Face Third Consecutive Decline
The property market continued its fluctuating trend this week, with the four major sub-district indices recording two increases and two decreases. Hong Kong Island and New Territories East outperformed the market. The former benefited from strengthened secondary owner bargaining power due to a lack of new competition, while the latter saw prices rise against the trend due to the successful "stable price, fast sales" strategy of large new projects which focused purchasing power.
Hong Kong Island was the strongest performer, with the index reporting 103.27 points, up 1.88% week-on-week, recording a three-week rising streak. The primary market within the district relied solely on inventory transactions from Deep Water Pavilia II and UPPER CENTRAL, which strengthened the bargaining position of secondary owners and drove prices upward.
New Territories East rebounded to 112.07 points, up 0.91% week-on-week, ending a two-week decline. Developers sold out over 400 units of SIERRA SEA Phase 2A across two rounds under a "stable price promotion" strategy. They continued to raise prices and launch Price List No. 6, which saw a 3.4% increase in the average discounted price per square foot compared to Price List No. 5. Additionally, the developer uploaded the sales brochure and first price list for SIERRA SEA Phase 2B, sustaining the sales momentum and keeping purchasing power within the primary market. Secondary owners, witnessing strong absorption for new projects, have strengthened their confidence in the market outlook and raised asking prices, thereby lifting the overall property prices in the district.
Conversely, the trends in Kowloon and New Territories West remain weak, with both district indices recording a third consecutive weekly drop. The Kowloon index stands at 112.07 points, a significant drop of 1.88% week-on-week. This is primarily attributed to multiple inventory projects within the district—such as ONE PARK PLACE, The Henley series, The Haddon, KT Marina, Belgravia Place, and The Paviia Forest II—attracting buyers with competitive pricing and achieving ideal sales results. Secondary owners, seeking to break through, had to expand discounts, dragging down regional prices. New Territories West was similarly under pressure, reporting 118.97 points, down 0.91% week-on-week. Affected by the promotion of Grand Mayfair inventory at market prices, purchasing power skewed toward the primary sector, causing secondary absorption to weaken and prices to suffer.
Looking ahead, with fluctuating Sino-US relations causing hot money to flow into the Hong Kong property market, banks continuing to offer mortgage and interest rate incentives to attract customers, and the "buying is cheaper than renting" phenomenon becoming more common due to clearer interest rate trends, buying appetite is being stimulated. The Eva Property Index (EPI) is expected to fluctuate between 110 and 116 points in the short term, with the overall trend expected to remain steady and upward.
Dragged Down by Pressure in Three Districts, Rental Index Falls for Two Weeks to 116.5 Points
Dragged down by softening rents in New Territories West, Kowloon, and Hong Kong Island, the secondary rental market in Hong Kong has recently shown volatility at high levels. The latest Eva Rental Index (ERI) is reported at 116.5 points, down 0.37% week-on-week, recording a second consecutive weekly decline. Furthermore, as January is a traditional low season for rentals, market sentiment is slightly quiet. Observing the trend for the year, rents have risen by a cumulative 0.41%. The index is currently just 1.72% shy of the historical peak of 118.54 points recorded in August 2019, suggesting that despite the correction, rents remain hovering at high levels.
Rental performance across districts presented three falls and one rise. New Territories West recorded the sharpest decline, reporting 135.41 points this week, a week-on-week drop of 1.78% and the second consecutive week of decline, making it the primary cause of the overall market drop. Kowloon also performed poorly, reporting 121.99 points, down 0.93% week-on-week, ending a two-week rising streak and indicating that leasing absorption in the district has slowed this week. Hong Kong Island was similarly under pressure this week, with the index reporting 124.12 points, a slight decrease of 0.27%, recording a two-week decline. Only New Territories East bucked the trend to perform well, reporting 119.78 points this week, an increase of 1.76% and a second consecutive week of upward movement.
Regarding the market outlook, some housing estates are beginning to see situations where "buying is cheaper than renting," and with interest rate directions becoming clearer, capable tenants may switch from renting to buying, which could slightly slow the rental growth momentum. However, the fundamentals supporting the rental market remain robust. It is expected that various talent schemes will continue to bring in new population, and the relaxation of policies for non-local students to study in Hong Kong under the "Study in Hong Kong" brand will generate substantial demand for the leasing market. As the traditional peak season approaches, the accumulated demand for upgrading and leasing is expected to be released gradually, adding momentum to the market.
In a comprehensive analysis, the 28Hse Research Department expects the Eva Rental Index (ERI) to fluctuate between 116 and 120 points in the short term. After digesting unfavorable factors, there is a chance to break the historical peak within the next two months. In the long run, rents for the full year of 2026 are expected to maintain a steady upward trend, with an estimated annual increase of approximately 2% to 4%.
The above indices reflect market conditions from January 16, 2026, to January 22, 2026.
