Property prices remained under pressure this week, whereas the rental market performed robustly. The Eva Property Index (EPI), which tracks secondary market price trends, latest stood at 120.52 points. This represents a week-on-week decline of 0.36%, halting the upward trajectory of the previous week, and reflects a cumulative drop of approximately 17.32% from its historical peak of 145.76 points in 2021. Across the districts, property prices recorded three declines and one increase, with Kowloon, New Territories East, and New Territories West all registering downward adjustments.
The downward pressure on the market was primarily driven by the strong sales performance of the new project THE ATLAS I, which absorbed a substantial amount of market purchasing power. Concurrently, the imminent launches of new developments—including SIERRA SEA Phase 2C (2) in Sai Sha, alongside YOHO SEASONS and Montage in Yuen Long and Kam Tin—have prompted prospective buyers across various districts to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Frontline agents reported that, influenced by low-priced new projects in urban areas and the traditional year-end low season, homeowners in New Territories West are concerned that upcoming local projects might adopt similar pricing strategies. Consequently, they have increasingly widened their room for negotiation, further dragging down property prices. Meanwhile, the uncertain economic outlook has prompted prospective buyers to pivot from purchasing to renting, thereby stimulating rental demand.
Regarding rental trends, the Eva Rental Index (ERI) stood at 122.46 points this week, marking a slight week-on-week increase of 0.09%. This represents a consecutive two-week rise, sitting just 0.06% below the historical peak of 122.53 points recorded in late September this year. District rentals exhibited three increases and one decline. New Territories West, Hong Kong Island, and Kowloon saw a significant influx of local families and professionals leasing units at high per-square-foot rates, which bolstered rental performance in these areas. Conversely, New Territories East recorded a higher volume of transactions at lower per-square-foot rates, placing downward pressure on its rental levels.
Looking ahead, the property market is currently navigating mixed signals, and property prices are expected to remain broadly stable with mild fluctuations in the coming months. Meanwhile, bolstered by robust demand, the leasing market is projected to maintain a steady upward trajectory. Rents are poised to breach the historical high of 122.53 points in the near term and continue to test new highs
New Projects Siphon Buyers, Stalling Secondary Transactions; Regional Property Prices Under Pressure with Three Declines and One Advance
Regional property price indices generally faced downward pressure this week, recording three declines and one advance. Property prices in Kowloon, New Territories East, and New Territories West all fell, with their indices reporting at 119.63, 117.29, and 125.68 points respectively, representing week-on-week drops of 1.42%, 0.90%, and 0.80%. Kowloon ended its five-week gaining streak, New Territories East fell for the third consecutive week, and New Territories West halted its two-week rally. Conversely, Hong Kong Island bucked the downward trend, latest reporting at 109.55 points, up 2.07% week-on-week, ending its previous decline. Analysts point out that the primary market is currently dominating the broader market, thereby weakening the competitiveness of secondary properties.
Property prices in Kowloon were significantly pressured, primarily driven by the robust sales of new projects and remaining inventory in the district. The first batch of 200 units on the price list for THE ATLAS I sold out completely, alongside 15 units sold via tender, absorbing a substantial amount of market purchasing power. Multiple projects within the district, including One Victoria Cove series, The Boundary, Montego Bay, 33 Clear Water Bay Phase 1, Victoria Voyage series, Chill Residence, the DOUBLE COAST series, KT Marina Phase 2, One Edward, and the MIAMI QUAY series, also recorded between 4 and 21 transactions of remaining stock. The active primary market transactions have compelled secondary market owners to widen their room for negotiation and reduce asking prices, consequently dragging down property prices in the district.
Property prices in New Territories East also trended downwards as the market adopts a wait-and-see approach ahead of the launch of SIERRA SEA Phase 2C (2). In early October, the project released two additional price lists totaling 106 units, with average discounted prices per square foot at $14,180 and $14,518 respectively. While superficially 2% to 4% higher than the previous batch, the actual increase is only about 1% when compared to units with similar orientations, effectively representing a launch at original prices. The attractive pricing has prompted many prospective buyers to pause their market entry. Weekend viewing appointments reflect this cautious sentiment; Hong Kong Property Services reported 167 viewing appointments across four major indicator estates in New Territories East, a week-on-week decrease of 4.57%. Secondary owners in the district are forced to cut prices to stimulate sales. Even though the primary market was solely supported by 12 transactions from the La Mirabelle series this week, local property prices remained under pressure.
Primary market transactions in New Territories West were relatively quiet. With new projects scheduled for launch in the district, market purchasing power is expected to be frozen. Carlos Lam, Founder and CEO of Centerland Property Limited, noted that large-scale new projects in the Yuen Long and Kam Tin areas, namely YOHO SEASONS and Montage, have announced upcoming sales. Influenced by the recent low-pricing strategies of new projects in the Kowloon urban area, secondary owners are concerned that new projects in New Territories West will also adopt aggressive low-price tactics. Consequently, most are willing to widen their room for negotiation. As the year-end approaches, the secondary market is entering its traditional off-season, leading to a reduction in high-priced transactions and further driving down district property prices. This week, the primary market in the district recorded only 9 transactions at Garden Regency, failing to arrest the downward trend in property prices.
Hong Kong Island has recently lacked new large-scale developments, resulting in limited primary market choices and prompting prospective buyers to return to the secondary market. Data from Midland Realty and Hong Kong Property Services indicate that weekend viewing appointments across several large indicator estates on Hong Kong Island recorded approximately 29 and 141 groups, representing week-on-week increases of 7.41% and 2.17%. This acceleration in transaction pace has supported district property prices in bucking the broader market downtrend.
28Hse Limited Data Researcher Alex Cheung maintains his previous forecast, expecting the EPI to fluctuate between 112 and 124 points in the short term. Primary market transaction volume in October has continued the robust momentum seen in August and September, recording over a thousand deals. However, the market remains clouded by bearish factors, including the uncertainty surrounding the US Federal Reserve's future interest rate trajectory and mainland China's intensified scrutiny of wealthy individuals' overseas asset taxation. Mainland China has tightened its overseas asset tax regulations, requiring tax residents involved in offshore trusts to declare their assets by October 22 previously and pay a 20% income tax on related returns. This policy will inevitably impact the sentiment in the local property market. It is anticipated that the property market will remain volatile but generally stable over the next two months.
Rigid Demand Supports 0.09% Rise in Rental Index; New Territories West Surges Over 1%
Following the traditional peak leasing season, the upward trend in Hong Kong's rental market continues. The ERI currently stands at 122.46 points, edging up 0.09% week-on-week and marking a two-week consecutive rise. The index has remained above the 122-point level for seven consecutive weeks, which is approximately 3.31% higher than the 2019 peak of 118.54 points, and merely 0.06% below the historical high of 122.53 points recorded in late September this year. Driven by the rigid demand from local family tenants, the market expects the index to break through its historical high in the near term.
Sub-regional rents generally performed well, with three regions recording increases and one recording a decline. New Territories West outperformed the market, standing at 141.17 points with a week-on-week increase of 1.04%, ending a two-week losing streak. Hong Kong Island reported 132.79 points, up 0.82% week-on-week, rising for two consecutive weeks. Kowloon recorded 126.88 points, up 0.55% week-on-week, halting last week's decline. In contrast, New Territories East faced downward pressure, reporting 125.54 points with a week-on-week drop of 0.25%, ending its previous upward momentum.
The rental growth in New Territories West primarily benefited from prospective buyers shifting from purchasing to renting. Lam noted that the recent slight increase in the unemployment rate and youth employment data reflect an uncertain economic outlook. This has prompted many prospective buyers with sufficient purchasing power to adopt a wait-and-see approach. They prefer to rent properties temporarily to avoid market volatility, thereby stimulating rental demand in the district.
Within the district, an open-plan unit at Ocean Camino and a two-bedroom unit at Gold Coast Bay - The Uppland were recently leased for HK$8,000 and HK$21,000 per month, respectively. The unit rents reached HK$36 and HK$40.7 per square foot, which are approximately 7.11% to 12.5% higher than the 90-day average unit rent on 28Hse. This indicates that high-priced transactions are driving a steady upward trend in the district's rental levels.
Traditional large-scale estates on Hong Kong Island continued to be highly sought after. A 391-square-foot two-bedroom unit at Nan Fung Sun Chuen was leased to a local family for HK$18,500 per month, translating to HK$47.3 per square foot. The benchmark estate Taikoo Shing also recorded an ideal transaction, with a mid-floor 582-square-foot two-bedroom unit leased to an out-of-district tenant for HK$28,500, or HK$49 per square foot. Both transactions were approximately 4.26% to 5.11% higher than the 90-day average unit rent on 28Hse. The leasing of these premium units at high prices has driven the overall rental growth on Hong Kong Island.
Market conditions in Kowloon were equally active. A 271-square-foot open-plan unit at The Prominence was leased to an imported talent for HK$14,400 per month, reaching HK$53.1 per square foot. The blue-chip estate Mei Foo Sun Chuen also saw a 591-square-foot two-bedroom unit leased to a local family within the district for HK$23,000. Both transaction prices stood firmly above the recent average unit rent on 28Hse, reflecting robust rental demand in Kowloon for both small units targeting professionals and large units tailored for families.
Conversely, rents in New Territories East retreated. A two-bedroom unit at Dawning Views in the district was leased to a local family for HK$13,800, which is approximately 6.77% below the aforementioned platform's market rate. Such lower-priced transactions slightly dragged down the overall rental performance in the district.
Entering mid-October, the overall leasing market remains active. Relocations and upgrades by local families, coupled with the continuous influx of imported talents, have generated a substantial customer base driving rental demand. Cheung maintained his previous forecast, pointing out that rental listings are in short supply, and unit rents in select premium estates will continue to rise. He expects the ERI to fluctuate between 114 and 126 points in the short term, with the potential to challenge historical highs, and forecasts full-year rental growth of 3% to 8%.
The above indices reflect market conditions from October 9, 2026, to October 15, 2026.
