As we transition from late September into early October, the pace of secondary market transactions in Hong Kong has visibly decelerated. This cooling effect is largely driven by seasonal holiday lulls and a flurry of major new project launches in urban districts. The latest Eva Property Index (EPI) stood at 120.85 points, dipping 0.35% week-on-week and snapping a four-week winning streak. Despite recent gains, the index remains approximately 17.09% below its historical peak recorded in August 2021. Regional property prices displayed divergent trends, with three districts charting gains against a single decline. Kowloon, Hong Kong Island, and New Territories West advanced against the broader market trend, whilst New Territories East faced short-term downward pressure as market focus shifted elsewhere.
On the leasing front, the recent rental rally has hit a temporary plateau. The latest Eva Rental Index (ERI) reached 122.20 points, edging down 0.27% week-on-week and halting a two-week climb. Currently, the index sits approximately 3.09% above its 2019 peak. Regional rental performance was a mixed bag, recording three declines and one gain. Hong Kong Island, New Territories East, and New Territories West led the market downward following the conclusion of the traditional summer leasing peak. Only Kowloon continued to benefit from the rigid demand of incoming tenants, driving a slight counter-trend increase in rents.
It is worth noting that secondary market viewing activities took a short-term hit, squeezed by the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday and aggressive sales campaigns from major urban developments. According to data from Midland Realty and Hong Kong Property Services, weekend viewing appointments at benchmark estates fell by about 3% week-on-week. Notably, the top ten estates tracked by Hong Kong Property Services recorded 393 groups, ending a five-week run of increases. The primary market has successfully stolen the spotlight, diluting the pool of secondary market buyers. Looking ahead, the steady influx of mainland talent alongside local housing demand will continue to underpin the leasing market, with full-year rents projected to rise by 3% to 8%. However, interest rate trajectories and capital constraints continue to weigh on the broader property landscape, prompting most buyers to adopt a cautious stance. Consequently, short-term property prices are expected to remain stable with a slight downward bias, with the index fluctuating between 112 and 124 points.
Regional Property Price Trends Diverge; Kowloon Bucks Trend with 1.30% Surge
Regional property price trends diverged this week. Indices for Kowloon, Hong Kong Island, and New Territories West rose to 118.44, 109.61, and 124.86 points, representing week-on-week increases of 1.30%, 0.94%, and 0.30% respectively. Conversely, New Territories East bore the brunt of the downward pressure, with its index reporting 119.21 points, a drop of 0.86% week-on-week.
In Kowloon and New Territories West, despite weekend launches of several urban projects effectively locking up market purchasing power and dampening secondary viewings (data from Hong Kong Property Services and Midland Realty showed weekend viewing appointments in Kowloon fell across the board, dropping from 200 and 194 groups to 194 and 189 groups respectively; additionally, Midland Realty noted New Territories West viewings slipped from 98 to 95 groups), vendors in these areas largely stood their ground on asking prices. Coupled with the fact that premium listings were still being snapped up at ideal prices, the property price indices in both districts rose slightly against the market trend, spearheaded by Kowloon's impressive 1.30% surge.
Hong Kong Island also demonstrated resilience, posting a 0.94% increase in property prices. Meanwhile, New Territories East faced profit-taking pressure. Johnson Chong, District Manager of Century 21 Goodwin Property Consultants, analysed that whilst the pre-sale announcement of the new Sai Sha project, SIERRA SEA Phase 2C (2), stimulated viewings in certain pockets, the overall market focus across Hong Kong had been hijacked by large-scale urban new projects. Buyers became increasingly cautious with their offers, resulting in a 0.86% week-on-week drop in New Territories East property prices.
Primary Market Sizzles with 493 Weekly Transactions; Polarised Pricing Strategies to Steer Future Trends
The primary sector was buzzing with activity over the past week, logging 493 transactions across the city. Market attention pivoted entirely towards brand-new, large-scale urban developments, which successfully siphoned off a significant pool of prospective secondary market buyers. By region, Kowloon and Hong Kong Island were the main magnets for capital, recording 254 and 196 transactions respectively. The New Territories saw a total of 43 transactions, with New Territories East and West accounting for 28 and 15 respectively.
According to the latest primary transaction records, The Sterling II in South West Kowloon and State Residence in North Point launched their first rounds of sales over the weekend to resounding success, recording 181 and 175 transactions respectively in a single week to become the city's top two best-sellers. This acted as the primary catalyst driving the surge in transaction volumes across Kowloon and Hong Kong Island. Other new projects, such as the LOHAS Park LA MIRABELLE series and KT Marina Phase 2, also recorded 17 and 14 transactions respectively, proving that under developers' active promotional efforts, buyer appetite for primary properties remains robust.
Looking ahead, developers' polarised pricing strategies will continue to dictate secondary property price trends. In Kowloon, the brand-new Yau Tong development, The Atlas I, debuted its first batch at an average discounted price of HK$13,988 per square foot, plunging to a near 10-year low for the district. Not only is it over 6% cheaper than The Coast Line—a project previously dubbed a "depth charge" in the same district—but its entry-level price per square foot for a one-bedroom unit is also nearly 16% lower than second-hand properties in the immediate vicinity. Furthermore, The Sterling II in South West Kowloon released additional units at an average discounted price of HK$19,962 per square foot, adopting a strategy of releasing new batches at original prices, with units in the same column seeing a maximum mark-up of only about 1%. These two major Kowloon developments are aggressively capturing buyers with low-price and restrained pricing strategies, which is expected to further drain market purchasing power. Secondary vendors in the district will inevitably face pressure on asking prices and will need to widen their room for negotiation in the short term to secure sales.
Conversely, on Hong Kong Island, following the robust sales of State Residence in North Point, the developer capitalised on the momentum to release the final 32 units at an average discounted price of HK$26,933 per square foot. This represents a significant 14.61% premium over the previous batch (with an actual 9% price increase for units in the same column), firmly categorising it as a "price-hike launch". This reflects a strong market absorption capacity for premium urban properties. This bullish sentiment has injected confidence into secondary vendors on Hong Kong Island, helping asking prices stabilise and supporting a counter-trend rebound in the district's property prices. Alongside the strong sales of small-to-medium units, the luxury market also recorded several high-profile, high-premium transactions, indicating a continuous inflow of capital into top-tier properties. A large unit with a saleable area of 2,773 square feet in Phase 2 of The Legacy in Mid-Levels West changed hands for over HK$123 million. Meanwhile, Central Res. By The Park in Mid-Levels recorded a transaction of HK$94.434 million, translating to a saleable price of HK$75,306 per square foot, setting a new weekly high for the area. As for the hot-selling State Residence in North Point, a large unit was also sold for HK$56 million, reaching HK$50,000 per square foot, demonstrating that luxury buyers are not slowing their pace of entry.
Rental Index Edges Down 0.27%; Hong Kong Island Leads the Decline with a 0.62% Drop
The overall rental rally has taken a breather. The latest ERI reported at 122.2 points, edging down 0.27% week-on-week and halting a two-week upward trend. Regional rents exhibited mixed performance, recording three declines and one gain. Hong Kong Island experienced the most significant pullback, leading the broader market downward with its index reporting at 131.06 points, a week-on-week drop of 0.62%. New Territories East and New Territories West also followed the broader market down, reporting at 124.65 and 140.22 points respectively, down 0.32% and 0.24% week-on-week. Only Kowloon rose against the trend by 0.71%, reporting at 127.06 points.
Hong Kong Island and New Territories East became the hardest-hit areas in this period's rental pullback. Chong explained that as the peak summer leasing season passes, the majority of mainland students coming to Hong Kong for their studies have already secured accommodation. Consequently, the number of rental listings on the market has gradually begun to increase; in the Ma On Shan district alone, overall rents have fallen by 1% to 1.5%, directly dragging down the overall rental performance of New Territories East. Hong Kong Island was similarly affected by seasonal factors, with overall rents leading the market decline.
Kowloon became the sole pillar of support for this week's rental index. Benefiting from the rigid demand of mainland professionals and local families, rental performance in the district remained highly resilient. Taking Sky Tower in To Kwa Wan as an example, a unit was recently leased at HK$52 per square foot, noticeably higher than the estate's average of HK$47 per square foot shown on the 28Hse online platform, confirming the strong upward momentum of Kowloon's rents.
In contrast, rents in Hong Kong Island, New Territories East, and New Territories West were pressured by the end of the peak season, with actual transacted rents generally falling below average online asking prices. Referencing market examples, Bayview Park in Chai Wan on Hong Kong Island recently recorded a transaction at approximately HK$48 per square foot, lower than the HK$51 average displayed on the 28Hse platform. Ocean Wings in Tseung Kwan O (New Territories East) and Century Link in Tung Chung (New Territories West) also recorded transactions at HK$47 and HK$33 per square foot respectively, both slightly below the 28Hse average rents (HK$48 and HK$35). This indicates that the room for negotiation on rental properties in these three districts is expanding.
The steady influx of mainland professionals relocating to Hong Kong for career opportunities continues to be the primary engine driving the leasing market. Coupled with the rigid demand from local tenants, citywide leasing transactions are expected to remain active. Therefore, 28Hse Limited Data Researcher Alex Cheung maintained his previous forecast, expecting the ERI to fluctuate between 114 and 126 points in the short term, with full-year rents projected to rise by 3% to 8%.
The above indices reflect market conditions from September 25, 2026, to October 1, 2026.
