Although December and January are traditionally considered the off-season for the real estate sector, the market has maintained a robust upward trajectory following the Christmas and New Year holidays, bolstered by the emergence of multiple favorable factors. With primary market transactions in 2025 surpassing the 20,000-unit mark—a ten-year high—and numerous institutions forecasting a moderate upward trend for the coming year, market sentiment has been further invigorated. These dynamics have accelerated property transaction volumes and provided solid support for a steady appreciation in property prices. The Eva Property Index (EPI), which tracks price trends in the secondary market, has recorded a rally for 12 consecutive weeks. The latest index stands at 114.79, representing a week-on-week increase of 0.42%. This figure is 3.05% higher than the benchmark of 111.39 recorded during the full withdrawal of cooling measures in 2024. While the current index remains approximately 21.25% below the historical peak of 145.76 set in 2021, the cumulative annual increase of 7.35% throughout 2025 indicates a narrowing gap. The data suggests a steady upward trajectory in market conditions, driven by strong entry desire from buyers.
The sub-district price indices displayed a "three-up, one-down" pattern, with Kowloon, New Territories East, and New Territories West performing well, while Hong Kong Island softened. Kowloon recorded the most significant growth, with the index rising to 112.16, up 1.21% week-on-week, marking three consecutive weeks of gains. This was driven by ideal sales performance in primary projects such as KT Marina, MONTEGO BAY, Uptown East, and Belgravia Place Phase 1, which revitalized confidence among secondary market owners. The New Territories West index reached 121.54, up 1% week-on-week, reversing previous declines as active transactions in the Grand Mayfair series and a drop in unsold inventory to recent lows pushed property prices upward. Meanwhile, the New Territories East index stands at 115.03, up 0.56% week-on-week, where market absorption has strengthened, supported by the pricing strategy of SIERRA SEA Phase 2A and robust sales in the Grand Seasons and Uptown series.
Conversely, the rental market remained under pressure this week. The Rental Index (ERI), reflecting secondary market rental trends, was reported at 116.03, a week-on-week decline of 0.24%, marking two consecutive weeks of decline. The cumulative annual increase stands at 2.08%, remaining approximately 2.12% below the historical peak of 118.54 recorded in August 2019. District performance was polarized, showing a "two-up, two-down" pattern. As December and January are traditional lulls for leasing, rental trends have been volatile. Furthermore, as the "cheaper to buy than to rent" dynamic continues to develop, the upside potential for overall rental levels may face resistance.
Detailed Analysis: Kowloon Leads Price Gains Across Three Districts
This week, the sub-district price indices showed gains in three districts, with Kowloon, New Territories East, and New Territories West performing ideally, while Hong Kong Island faced pressure and softened.
Kowloon was the top performer, with the index at 112.16, rising 1.21% week-on-week for a third consecutive week. The successful clearance of unsold primary inventory in projects like Kai Tak Bay, MONTEGO BAY, Uptown East, and Belgravia Place Phase 1 reflects sustained market confidence in the district's outlook, conducive to steady price appreciation. Secondary market owners, perceiving strong absorption capabilities, have raised asking prices, further driving the district's upward trend.
New Territories West also performed well, with the index at 121.54, rising 1% week-on-week and reversing last week's downward trend. The Grand Mayfair series recorded significant transaction volumes for remaining units, warming market sentiment and boosting buyer confidence. With the acceleration of primary stock clearance, total unsold inventory has fallen to approximately 18,000 units—a recent low. Consequently, absorption power in the secondary market has increased, leading owners to take a bullish view of the market and raise asking prices.
Price Outlook
New Territories East also reported gains, with the index at 115.03, up 0.56% week-on-week, halting last week's decline. This week, the developer of SIERRA SEA Phase 2A released the first price list, with opening prices approximately 3% to 5% higher than the related SIERRA SEA Phase 1A(2) and 1B. The fact that these projects have been the most oversubscribed in the territory reflects developer optimism regarding the future market, with repeated emphasis on the potential for a rise in both price and volume this year. Ideal sales in the Grand Seasons and Le Mont series have directed purchasing power toward the primary market. Secondary owners, noting robust market absorption, have adjusted asking prices upward, supporting price growth in the district.
Although banks in Hong Kong have not yet followed the Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates, it is anticipated that mortgage and interest rate incentives will be introduced to attract customers. Coupled with unsold primary inventory falling to a new low of approximately 18,000 units, the data indicates sustained market improvement, which will help stimulate entry desire. The Eva Property Index (EPI) has stabilized above the "full withdrawal" level of 111.39 for eight consecutive weeks and is currently 3.05% higher than that benchmark. The 28Hse Research Department forecasts that in the short term, the index will fluctuate between 107 and 118, with the overall trend expected to remain stable to upward. There is potential for a simultaneous rise in both price and volume, with full-year property prices estimated to rise by 3% to 5%.
Detailed Analysis: Rental Indices Show Mixed Trends
Due to seasonal factors in December and January, rents for secondary properties in Hong Kong continued to adjust downward. The latest Eva Rental Index (ERI) is 116.03, down 0.24% week-on-week, recording a second consecutive week of decline. Year-to-date rental growth stands at 2.08%, leaving a gap of 2.51 points, or approximately 2.12%, from the historical high of 118.54 in August 2019. Looking ahead to 2026, supported by housing demand from incoming talent and strong local rigid demand for leasing, the long-term rental outlook remains positive, with the potential to breach the historical high.
District performance this week showed a divergent trend. New Territories West and Kowloon performed well, while New Territories East and Hong Kong Island faced pressure. New Territories West was the best performer, with the index rising 0.8% week-on-week to 137, marking four consecutive weeks of increase. Kowloon followed with an index of 119.65, up 0.35% week-on-week, rising for the third consecutive week. Conversely, New Territories East dropped 0.87% week-on-week to 116.23, ending its previous upward streak, and Hong Kong Island fell 0.96% to 124.32. Overall, due to the traditional leasing lull in December and January, secondary rental trends are tending towards volatility within a narrow range. However, benefiting from talent schemes and local rigid housing demand, urban rents remain hovering at high levels despite the polarized performance.
Rental Outlook
While local banks have yet to cut rates, the phenomenon where mortgage payments are lower than monthly rent persists across various estates, prompting some tenants to switch from renting to buying, which has slightly slowed the momentum of rental increases. Nevertheless, supported by talent housing needs and local rigid demand, the long-term trajectory for rents remains favorable. The 28Hse Research Department predicts that the Eva Rental Index (ERI) will fluctuate between 116 and 120 in the coming two months, with a chance to break the historical high of 118.54. Full-year rental growth is estimated at approximately 2% to 4%.
The indices above reflect market conditions for the period of December 26, 2025, to January 01, 2026.
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