The latest Eva Property Index (EPI) stands at 117.24 points, representing a week-on-week increase of 1.22% and marking an upward trend for the second consecutive week. Sub-regional property prices exhibited a mixed performance this week, with three districts recording gains and one recording a decline. New Territories West outperformed the broader market, surging by nearly 2% week-on-week. New Territories East and Hong Kong Island also registered increases, whereas property prices in the Kowloon district experienced a drop. Analysts indicate that the current absence of large-scale new project launches in New Territories West and Hong Kong Island, coupled with the lackluster sales performance of new project in New Territories East, has prevented purchasing power from being diverted to the primary market. Consequently, homeowners in the secondary market have maintained a firmer stance on asking prices, providing short-term support and stability to overall property values. This dynamic reflects that the pace of new launches and the pricing strategies within the primary market continue to dictate broader market trends. Concluding the first quarter of this year, overall property prices have recorded a cumulative year-to-date increase of 2.13%. However, the index remains approximately 19.57% below its historical peak of 145.76 points recorded in August 2021.
Regarding the rental market, overall rents remained stable during the traditional off-season. The latest rental index reported at 117.4 points, edging up 0.14% WoW. Driven by luxury residential leasing, the current index is less than 1% away from its historical high.
Recently, primary market projects in the Kowloon district have demonstrated robust absorption capacity; for instance, all 164 units of Zendo House were successfully sold out within four days. As the attractive pricing of these new developments has absorbed substantial purchasing power, the secondary market within the same district has experienced short-term pressure, compelling some homeowners to reduce asking prices to facilitate transactions. Conversely, areas outside of Kowloon generally lack large-scale primary market launches, resulting in relatively less market competition. Taking New Territories East as an example, the lackluster sales performance of Cloudview has not caused a significant diversion of purchasing power from the district's secondary market. Consequently, secondary homeowners have maintained a firmer stance on asking prices, culminating in the aforementioned sub-regional property price performance of three districts rising and one falling. Looking ahead, developers' proactive launch strategies will continue to drive the broader market, and it is anticipated that the Eva Property Index (EPI) will fluctuate within the range of 112 to 120 points in the near term.
Sub-Regional Prices See Three Rises and One Fall; New Territories West Performs Best with a Nearly 2% WoW Increase
This week's sub-regional property price indices showed three rises and one fall. New Territories West was the top performer, latest reporting at 122.52 points, up 1.98% WoW, ending a four-week losing streak.
The rebound in New Territories West property prices is primarily due to the recent lack of large-scale new project launches in the district, with the first-hand market relying mainly on the inventory sales of the Novo Land series. Lacking first-hand focal points, purchasing power has flowed back to the secondary market, stabilizing owners' asking prices and narrowing the room for negotiation. According to Victor Chung, Senior Area Sales Manager at Midland Realty, market sentiment was initially observant due to the Lunar New Year holiday, but secondary transaction pacing in the district has accelerated in recent weeks, with a notable rebound in transaction volume.
As secondary transactions become more active, properties with price advantages have become the top choice for buyers. Fleming Lee, Associate Sales Director of Centaline Property Agency Limited, notes that in the Tsuen Wan district, properties approaching 20 years of age, such as H Cube and Indi Home, are currently transacting at approximately $15,000 per square foot. Compared to newer developments in the same district like Ocean Pride and Parc City, which hover around $18,000 to $20,000 per square foot, there is a discount of about $3,000 to $5,000 per square foot. Given their proximity and similar views and amenities, this significant price gap has attracted prospective buyers to these cost-effective secondary properties, thereby stimulating transaction volume and prices in the district.
Additionally, developers have previewed the upcoming launch of a brand-new Tsuen Wan project, Lime Spark, which may stimulate district property prices. Chung points that “the market expects this project to set a new benchmark for the district, prompting some buyers to enter the market early. As the area in New Territories West closest to Kowloon, Tsuen Wan boasts transportation and geographical advantages, leading to more aggressive buyer interest and owner asking prices compared to other areas. The district's property price trend is expected to remain steadily positive.”
The New Territories East property price index ended a two-week decline, latest reporting at 114.27 points, up 1.49% WoW. First-hand sales in the district have slowed recently, with the new project Yunxiang selling only about 75% of its units in the first round; remaining inventory from the Villa Garda and Le Mont series also recorded only 7 sales respectively. Amidst flat first-hand transactions, secondary owners in the district have held firm on asking prices, narrowing negotiation margins and providing support to overall property prices.
Facing upcoming new projects in the same district and a slight slowdown in initial sales, Cloudview released its price list No. 3 on the 15th of this month, offering 77 units at a discounted average price of $14,621 per square foot, an 8.6% reduction from the previous price list. The developer is evidently aiming to maintain the project's competitiveness through price reductions.
The Hong Kong Island property price index reported at 106.19 points, edging up 0.05% WoW, marking a three-week consecutive rise. Similar to the New Territories East and West, Hong Kong Island lacked large-scale new project focal points this week, with first-hand transactions relying mainly on remaining inventory from previously launched projects such as the Headland Residences, Central Residence by the Park and Aruna. With no new focal points in the first-hand market, secondary owners in the district held firm on asking prices, narrowing negotiation margins.
On the other hand, Phase 6A of the new project DEEP WATER SOUTH launched its first batch of units on the 13th of this month at a discounted average price of $29,055 per square foot, setting a new high for the initial per-square-foot price of new projects in the district since the launch of La Marina in August 2021. Its pricing is also approximately 3.8% to 70% higher than other new projects launched around August 2021. With the developer adopting an aggressive high-pricing strategy for this launch, it is anticipated that this will provide further upward momentum to property prices within the district in the short term.
Conversely, the Kowloon index retreated slightly, latest reporting at 114.86 points, down 0.06% WoW, ending a two-week rise. The continuous launch of first-hand new projects in the district has significantly absorbed market purchasing power. Following the rapid sell-out of In One's initial 164 units within four days, Foto+ also launched its first batch on the 16th of this month at a discounted average price of only $18,088 per square foot, over 20% lower than some new projects in the same district. The attractive pricing of new projects successfully drew many buyers, putting short-term pressure on the district's secondary market and forcing many owners to reduce prices to facilitate transactions.
In addition to the aforementioned projects, first-hand inventory from developments such as Phase 1 of Highwood, KT Marina, Victoria Voyage series, the Knightsbridge, KOKO MARE, the Pavilia Forest series, 26 Ko Shan, and The Henley series have recently recorded sales ranging from 6 to 43 units. This continuous absorption of market purchasing power further pressures the secondary market, compelling owners to adjust asking prices to enhance competitiveness.
However, secondary market viewing activities in the district have seen a rebound. Midland Realty data shows that weekend viewing appointments (14th to 15th) for seven major indicator estates in Kowloon recorded about 207 groups, an increase of approximately 4.5% compared to 198 groups the previous weekend. Hong Kong Property Services’ data indicated a 3.6% increase in viewing appointments for four major indicator estates in Kowloon over the same period. This reflects that while first-hand projects in the district are generally opening close to market prices and absorbing substantial purchasing power, prospective buyers continue to search for reasonably priced listings in the secondary market.
Furthermore, CONNEXT also launched its first 50 units on the 19th of this month at a discounted average price of $18,088 per square foot, 18% higher than its affiliated new project PHOENEXT sold in January 2024. This indicates that developers are pricing primarily based on district market conditions and the project's own attributes, reflecting a cautiously optimistic outlook on the future market and reception in Kowloon.
Industry practitioners have also observed that recent geopolitical instabilities in the Middle East are exerting a positive influence on the Hong Kong property market. Chung posits that regional conflicts have catalyzed an inflow of safe-haven capital into Hong Kong, with a propensity to be allocated towards tangible assets such as residential properties. Since the onset of these hostilities, the local luxury residential segment has already spearheaded the market, recording concurrent increases in both transaction volume and prices. Furthermore, the government's proactive initiatives to attract family offices to establish operations in Hong Kong have led to a gradual influx of associated capital into the real estate sector, thereby benefiting the broader secondary market. Concurrently, the 1-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR), a key benchmark for mortgage rates, has recently declined by approximately 20%. This moderation in interest rates correspondingly alleviates mortgage servicing burdens, providing further impetus for buyers to channel capital into the property market.
Looking ahead, the trajectory of the property market will continue to be dictated by developers' launch paces and pricing strategies, the evolution of geopolitical dynamics, and the directional trend of interbank rates. In the near term, the property price index is projected to consolidate and fluctuate within the range of 112 to 120 points.
Rental Index Less Than 1% Below Historical High; Luxury Transactions Support Market
Despite currently being in the traditional off-season for leasing, this week's Eva Rental Index (ERI) latest reported at 117.4 points, up 0.14% WoW, ending last week's downward trend. The gap between this index and the historical high of 118.54 points set in August 2019 has narrowed to less than 1%, at merely about 0.96%. Summarizing the first quarter of this year, overall rents have accumulated a temporary increase of 1.18%, and it is expected that it will return to the historical high in the short term.
However, the rental indices for all four major sub-regions fell across the board. New Territories West reported at 134.85 points, down 1.1% WoW, falling for two consecutive weeks; New Territories East reported at 121.54 points, down 0.98% WoW, ending a three-week rise; Hong Kong Island reported at 124.36 points, down 0.49% WoW, ending a four-week rise; Kowloon reported at 121.82 points, down 0.32% WoW, ending last week's upward trend.
Addressing the situation where the overall index rose while all sub-regions fell, analysts point out that recent active leasing in large-sum luxury properties has driven the overall rental index upward, whereas rents for general sub-regional estates have broadly faced pressure. Since the geopolitical turbulence in the Middle East, transaction volumes and rents in the local luxury market have been the first to rebound, providing support for the overall secondary leasing market, as stated by Chung.
Regarding the market conditions in New Territories West, Chung further explained that the rental trend in the district has shown polarization. Although leasing transactions in the Tsuen Wan and Tsuen King Circuit areas have decreased, rents have risen against the market trend; conversely, Tuen Mun and Yuen Long currently have an abundant supply of rental listings, dragging down the overall rental performance of New Territories West.
The 28Hse Research Department projects that the Eva Rental Index (ERI) will fluctuate within the range of 114 to 120 points in the short term. While the market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will refrain from cutting interest rates in the near term, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has prompted some global investors to diversify risks and reduce their holdings in US dollar-denominated assets. This has driven a repatriation of capital into the Hong Kong dollar system, resulting in a decline in the 1-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR).
As mortgage interest costs decrease, the phenomenon where "mortgage payments are lower than rental costs" persists. Consequently, a segment of tenants may transition from renting to purchasing, which is expected to slightly moderate the upward momentum of rents in the short term. Looking further ahead, the rental market trajectory for the full year of 2026 is projected to remain positive, with an estimated growth ranging between 2% and 4%.
The above indices reflect market conditions from March 13, 2026, to March 19, 2026.
