Entering the first week of the Year of the Horse, the property market reported positive results despite the strong festive atmosphere of the Lunar New Year. The latest Eva Property Index (EPI) stood at 116.08 points, up 0.39% week-on-week (WoW), marking a four-week consecutive rise and successfully breaching the 116-point threshold. After hovering between 113 and 114 points in January and digesting unfavorable factors, the index has consecutively broken through the 115 and 116-point marks over the past two weeks. The cumulative increase in property prices this year has reached 1.12%, narrowing the gap with the historical high of 145.76 points recorded in August 2021 to 20.36%. The market generally expects an upward trend in both property prices and transaction volumes this year, with the gap expected to further narrow to within 20% in the short term. This reflects that despite the festive season, the sales of primary market inventory and individual tender projects remain robust, boosting market sentiment and prompting capital to gradually flow back into the secondary market.
Regarding regional performance, property prices across the four major districts showed a mixed trend of two advances and two declines. Hong Kong Island performed the best, rising 0.34% WoW. The increase in this district was primarily driven by the successful sell-out of several tenders for the Central Residence by the Park around the Lunar New Year, coupled with the ideal sales of remaining inventory at the Headland Residences Phase, which boosted regional property prices. Kowloon also edged up by 0.16%, mainly driven by the transactions of primary inventory such as the Pavilia Forest series and ONE PARK PLACE. Conversely, New Territories West and New Territories East saw their indices dip slightly by 0.01% and 0.90% respectively this week, owing to quiet primary market transactions in the districts. Looking ahead to the post-Lunar New Year period, new projects such as LOHAS Park Phase 13 and The Southside will be launched successively. Even if the new Budget does not introduce special relief measures or further ease cooling measures, it is expected that the property market will maintain a steady upward trajectory in the short to medium term. The market is anticipated to see an increase in both price and volume, with the price index hovering between 112 and 120 points in the short term, and possessing the potential to challenge the 2021 peak in the medium to long term.
In terms of rentals, the Eva Rental Index (ERI) reported 116.91 points, up 0.54% WoW, ending a two-week decline. The index has hovered around the 116-point level for 15 consecutive weeks, narrowing the gap with the historical high of 118.54 points to just 1.38%. The upward trend in rentals is believed to be associated with the government's promotion of the "Study in Hong Kong" brand and the relaxation of the quota for non-local students. Coupled with the robust rigid housing demand from local families, even though interest rate cuts sustain the "cheaper to buy than rent" phenomenon, rentals are expected to fluctuate between 114 and 120 points in the short term, with the potential to break through the historical high soon.
Divergent Trends Across Four Districts with Hong Kong Island Outperforming; Post-Holiday New Launches to Take the Baton, Property Prices Poised to Challenge Highs
The Hang Seng Index hovering at the high level of 26,000 points has delivered a fair performance in the financial market, supporting overall investment sentiment. This week, the property price indices of the four districts developed individually, showing two advances and two declines. Hong Kong Island and Kowloon performed well, while New Territories East and New Territories West both softened, reflecting the uneven pace of primary market purchasing power flowing back to the secondary market during the long holiday.
Hong Kong Island recorded the best performance this week. The index stood at 107.26 points, up 0.34% WoW, halting last week's decline. The district's gain was primarily fueled by developers launching projects around the Lunar New Year, among which the Central Residence by the Park sold out several tenders, offloading 19 units in total, while the sales of the Headland Residences Phase's remaining units were also satisfactory. This indicates that some buyers remained unaffected by the holidays and chose to enter the market, making the district's transaction volume the highest in the city and driving up property prices.
Kowloon also performed well this week. The index reported 113.21 points, edging up 0.16% WoW, marking a four-week consecutive rise. Transactions of remaining inventory in the district, such as the Pavilia Forest series, ONE PARK PLACE, Twin Victoria, KT Marina, the Victoria Phase 1B, and Grand Homm, remained stable. Observing the strengthening market absorption capacity, secondary market owners have successively narrowed their room for negotiation, with some even raising their asking prices, thereby supporting the upward movement of property prices in the district.
Conversely, the trend in New Territories West softened this week. The index stood at 120.95 points, down slightly by 0.01% WoW, ending a three-week rising streak. During the long holiday, the primary market in the district was only supported by sporadic transactions from the Grand Mayfair series, Novo Land series, and the Wave. As secondary market owners perceived a weakening in absorption capacity, they widened their negotiation room, leading to slight pressure on property prices.
New Territories East registered the most lackluster performance this week. The index reported 114.68 points, down 0.90% WoW, terminating a four-week upward trend. The lack of large-scale new project launches or inventory transactions in the district this week resulted in a quiet primary market, which in turn affected secondary transactions and dragged down property prices. However, developers have recently named LOHAS Park Phase 13 as LA MIRABELLE, providing over 2,000 units, which are expected to be launched after the Lunar New Year. The developers' proactive deployment reflects their optimism regarding the market outlook, and regional property prices are expected to resume their upward trajectory in the short term.
Looking ahead, developers are expected to continuously reduce discounts and raise prices for new launches, and the market is believed to be capable of gradually digesting primary inventory. After the Lunar New Year, new projects such as Seaside Cove, the remaining phases of The Southside, and Cloudview will be launched successively, which is expected to keep the property market sentiment heating up across various districts. Even if the new Budget does not provide further relief measures or ease cooling measures, and even increases the ad valorem stamp duty for luxury residential properties valued over $100 million from 4.25% to 6.5%, it is believed that this will not hinder the overall positive direction of the property market this year. The property market is projected to experience an increase in both price and volume, with the price index fluctuating between 112 and 120 points in the short term, and possessing the strength to challenge the historical high of 2021 in the medium to long term.
Supported by Study Demand, Rental Index Rebounds by 0.54%, Just 1.38% Away from Historical High
Benefiting from the relaxation of the admission quota for non-local undergraduate students at the eight government-funded universities from 40% to 50% starting this academic year in September, the latest Eva Rental Index (ERI) reported 116.91 points, up 0.54% WoW, terminating a two-week decline. The index has hovered around the 116-point level for 15 consecutive weeks, narrowing the gap with the 118.54-point historical high to just 1.38%, reflecting that the rental market is gradually digesting seasonal factors and maintaining a steady upward trend.
Rentals across the four major districts exhibited a mixed trend of two advances and two declines. New Territories West performed the best, with the index standing at 136.11 points, up 1.99% WoW, marking a two-week consecutive rise. Hong Kong Island also stabilized, reporting 120.05 points, up 0.39% WoW, ending a five-week decline. Conversely, the trends in New Territories East and Kowloon were weak. New Territories East reported 120.19 points, down 0.4% WoW, marking a three-week consecutive decline; while Kowloon reported 123.06 points, down 0.41% WoW, softening its upward momentum. The data reflects slightly weaker rental absorption capacity in these two districts, putting pressure on rents.
The 28Hse Research Department expects the rental index to fluctuate between 114 and 120 points in the short term. The government's active promotion of the "Study in Hong Kong" brand, coupled with Direct Subsidy Scheme (DSS) schools admitting more non-local students, will further stimulate rental demand. Supplemented by the substantial housing needs of local families, the fundamentals of the rental market remain robust.
Looking ahead, as the rental demand from international students gradually emerges, the rental index is expected to have the opportunity to challenge the historical high of 118.54 points over the next two months. In the long run, the rental trend for the full year of 2026 is expected to continue its upward trajectory, with an annual increase projected between 2% and 4%.
The above indices reflect market conditions from February 13, 2026, to February 19, 2026.
