The latest Eva Property Index (EPI) stood at 121.09 points, edging down by 0.15% week-on-week. Despite falling for two consecutive weeks, the index has maintained at the 121-point level for three straight weeks, representing a drop of approximately 16.93% from its peak in August 2021. Recently, several new projects have been launched at market prices, warming up the first-hand market and diverting purchasing power from the secondary market. Concurrently, coinciding with the secondary school allocation and the release of the HKDSE results, some family buyers have temporarily suspended their home purchasing plans, prompting secondary market owners to widen their negotiation margins. Property prices across all four major districts declined, with Hong Kong Island and New Territories East recording drops of over 1%. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, influenced by interest rate trends and developers' launch strategies, property prices are unlikely to sustain the upward momentum seen in the first half, with overall performance trending towards stability or even a slight downward adjustment.
In terms of the rental market, the Eva Rental Index (ERI) for this week reported at 120.34 points, a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.09%, ending a four-week gaining streak. However, it has remained at the 120-point level for three consecutive weeks, still 1.52% higher than the peak in August 2019. In some districts, due to tenants' wait-and-see attitudes and a reduction in premium listings, transactions were mostly concentrated in lower-priced units, causing average rents to soften temporarily. Nevertheless, rents in New Territories East rose against the market trend, driven by mainland students paying rent in advance. Overall, amidst the traditional summer leasing peak season, there is robust demand from incoming professionals, non-local students, and local families, leading to a persistent supply shortage in rental properties. It is expected that rents will hover at high levels in the short term.
Property Prices Across All Four Regions Under Pressure; Hong Kong Island and New Territories East Drop Over 1%
This week, the regional property price indices fell across the board. Hong Kong Island and New Territories East ended their respective one-week and two-week upward streaks, reporting at 109.17 points and 118.78 points, down by 1.43% and 1.26% week-on-week, respectively. New Territories West also ended a two-week rise, reporting at 125.19 points, a slight week-on-week drop of 0.22%. Meanwhile, the Kowloon district fell for the second consecutive week, reporting at 116.9 points, a marginal week-on-week decline of 0.09%. Analysts pointed out that the recent slight recovery in first-hand transactions has captured market focus, compelling secondary market owners to widen their negotiation margins and putting pressure on overall transaction prices.
First-hand sales on Hong Kong Island were driven by the remaining inventory of new projects in the district, with 7 and 4 transactions recorded at the Headland Residences and La Montagne Phase 4B, respectively. The active first-hand market led to a loss of secondary market buyers, softening owners' asking price stances. According to data from Hong Kong Property Services and Midland Realty, weekend viewing appointments at two major indicator housing estates on Hong Kong Island recorded 23 and 139 groups, representing week-on-week declines of 4.17% and 2.8%, respectively. This reflects a lukewarm short-term desire to enter the market among prospective buyers. Coupled with the earlier absorption of premium listings, this has exerted further pressure on property prices.
A similar situation was observed in New Territories East, where the Horizon series and La Mirabelle I recorded 20 and 7 transactions, respectively, boosting the district's first-hand market sentiment. Consequently, secondary market homeowners have generally widened their room for negotiation. Data from Hong Kong Property Services and Midland Realty showed that weekend viewing appointments at indicator housing estates in New Territories East recorded 173 and 118 groups, edging down by 1.14% and 0.84% week-on-week, respectively. This indicates that prospective buyers have yet to return to the secondary market to seek listings, leading to a downward trend in property prices.
In New Territories West, the focus fell on the new Kam Tin project, Garden Regency. The developer recently released price list No. 2, offering 60 units at market prices with a discounted average price of $13,179 per square foot, approximately 6.13% lower than the initial batch. The project was oversubscribed by 51 times upon the close of registration. Concurrently, the Grand Mayfair and Wetland Seasons Bay series recorded 6 and 3 transactions, respectively. The first-hand market stealing the spotlight weakened the absorption capacity of the district's secondary market, resulting in a slight drop in property prices.
Victor Chung, Senior Area Sales Manager at Midland Realty, analyzed that the data collection period coincided with the secondary school allocation and the release of HKDSE results. Local family buyers generally prefer to make home purchasing decisions only after their children's educational placements are settled. This led to quieter trading activity during the period, thereby putting pressure on property prices across the New Territories West and Hong Kong.
Regarding the Kowloon district, One Victoria Cove Phase 4, the KT Marina series, and The Pavilia Forest II recorded between 3 and 6 transactions. Secondary market viewing volumes in the district were also under pressure. Hong Kong Property Services and Midland Realty recorded 182 and 192 viewing groups, respectively, representing week-on-week declines of 4.21% and 2.54%. Seeing the weakened market demand, secondary market owners generally lowered their asking prices.
Looking ahead, several new projects are poised for launch. The first price list of La Mirabelle II in LOHAS Park features a discounted average price of $15,770 per square foot, which is approximately 1.17% to 11.15% higher than La Mirabelle I and the SEASONS series, representing a slight price increase, and is scheduled to go on sale next week. Additionally, the large-scale commercial and residential project at 8 Fat Tseung Street West in Cheung Sha Wan has been named “The Sterling”. Phase 1 is currently awaiting pre-sale consent and plans to launch 507 units in the short term, reflecting developers' confidence in future sales sentiment.
28Hse Limited Data Researcher Alex Cheung pointed out that developers' launch paces and pricing strategies in the second half of the year, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate trends, and mainland China's capital outflow policies will be key factors affecting the property market. He maintained his previous forecast, estimating that the EPI will fluctuate between 112 and 124 points in the short term. The overall performance of the property market in the second half of the year is expected to trend towards stability, or even face slight pressure.
Rental Index Retreats 0.09% from Peak, Continues to Stand Firm at 120 Points
After hitting a record high last week, the ERI reported at 120.34 points this week, edging down by 0.09% week-on-week and ending a four-week gaining streak. However, it has stood firm at the 120-point level for three consecutive weeks, remaining 1.52% higher than the peak of 118.54 points in August 2019. Although the upward momentum in rents has slightly softened, the short-term trend is expected to remain positive.
Rents in the four major districts recorded three drops and one rise. New Territories West saw the largest decline, reporting at 136.85 points, down 1.53% week-on-week, ending a two-week rise. Hong Kong Island reported at 128.98 points, down 1.31% week-on-week, failing to sustain last week's upward trend. The Kowloon district reported at 124.83 points, down 0.71% week-on-week, concluding a two-week rise. Conversely, New Territories East bucked the trend and rose, reporting at 123.46 points, up 0.98% week-on-week. Data indicates that rental absorption capacity weakened slightly this week, putting pressure on overall rents.
The softening of rental trends in New Territories West, Hong Kong Island, and Kowloon was primarily due to recent below-market rental transactions recorded in some housing estates, which dragged down the overall average levels.
Taking New Territories West as an example, a two-bedroom unit (Room G, High Floor, Tower 1) at Regency Bay in Tuen Mun, with a saleable area of 437 square feet, was recently leased by an out-of-district tenant for $17,000 per month, translating to approximately $38.9 per square foot. Additionally, a two-bedroom unit (Room A, High Floor, Tower 1B) at HAVA in Yuen Long, with a saleable area of 446 square feet, was leased for $17,500, or approximately $39.2 per square foot. Referring to 28Hse data, the average rents per square foot for these two estates over the past 90 days reached $41 and $42, respectively, reflecting that these two latest transactions were about 5% to 10% below market prices.
Chung believes that some tenants with children taking current-year examinations have postponed moving, leading to a decrease in new market listings. Faced with a lack of premium listing replenishments, market transactions were mostly concentrated in units with lower asking prices, thereby dragging down the average rental transaction prices in the district.
A similar situation occurred on Hong Kong Island. A three-bedroom unit at Island Resort in Siu Sai Wan was recently leased at approximately $43.8 per square foot, nearly 5% lower than the average of $46 per square foot recorded on the 28Hse platform over the past 90 days.
In the Kowloon district, the latest rental performance of a two-bedroom unit at DOUBLE COAST in Kai Tak was also weak, with a transaction rent of only $46 per square foot, trailing the average level of approximately $47 recorded on the same platform during the same period. Sporadic cases of such slightly below-market rents in these three districts weakened the upward momentum of rents, causing the overall rental trends in the three districts to soften this week.
In contrast, the rental trend in New Territories East rose against the market, primarily driven by leasing demand from mainland students coming to Hong Kong for studies, allowing some units to be leased at more ideal prices.
Taking a two-bedroom unit at University Hill Phase 2A in Tai Po as an example, the unit was leased by a mainland student about to enroll at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, who pre-paid a full year's rent. The monthly rent reached $19,600, translating to approximately $48.3 per square foot, which is nearly 3% higher than the average of $47 per square foot recorded on the 28Hse platform over the past 90 days.
Additionally, recent transactions for two-bedroom units at SIERRA SEA Phase 1B and City One Shatin recorded high rents of $42.9 and $49 per square foot, respectively, both surpassing the platform's average levels of $42 and $45 per square foot during the same period. The rents of these three transactions were all higher than recent market averages, reflecting that rents in the New Territories East district are strongly supported by actual housing demand.
Entering the traditional summer leasing peak season, rental demand from incoming professionals, non-local students, and local families remains robust. With market listings in short supply, rents per square foot in some housing estates are expected to hit new highs.
Cheung maintained his earlier forecast, estimating that the ERI will fluctuate between 114 and 124 points in the short term. As the shortage of rental listings is expected to persist for some time, full-year rents are projected to rise by approximately 2% to 4%, and overall rents will remain at high levels.
The above indices reflect market conditions from July 10, 2026, to July 16, 2026.
