Home Price Index Rises for Seventh Consecutive Weeks; Prices Up 4.72% Year-to-Date; Rents Consolidating Near Highs with Potential to Break New Records

Sentiment in the local property market continues to improve, with the upward trend in property prices showing no signs of abating. The Eva Property Index (EPI), which reflects secondary market price movements, has risen for seven consecutive weeks. The latest reading stands at 111.98 points, a week-on-week increase of 0.06%. Notably, this marks the fourth consecutive week the index has stabilized above the pre-"withdrawal of spicy measures" low of 110.92 points. The index has accumulated a rise of 4.72% year-to-date. Although it remains approximately 23.18% below the historical peak of 145.76 points recorded in 2021, the data indicates a gradual restoration of market confidence. Regional property price indices presented a "three rises, one fall" pattern, with gains reported in New Territories West, New Territories East, and Hong Kong Island, while the Kowloon region remained under pressure.

Industry analysts suggest that the market is benefiting from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in late October, coupled with a simultaneous reduction in the Prime Rate (P) by local banks, which has effectively alleviated the cost of home ownership. With the market anticipating further rate cuts in December and Sino-US relations continuing to improve, the convergence of multiple favorable factors is expected to stimulate transaction activity and support positive market development.

Rental Market Sees Minor Adjustment Post-Peak Season; Strong Rigid Demand Expected to Challenge Highs Again

In the rental market, a slight adjustment was observed this week. The latest Eva Rental Index (ERI) was reported at 116.48 points, a week-on-week decline of 0.21%, though it continues to hover at elevated levels. The regional rental indices displayed a "three falls, one unchanged" pattern. The decline is primarily attributed to the conclusion of the summer leasing peak season some time ago, leading to a slight retreat in rental levels; however, the index remains near its yearly high.

Despite this, housing demand generated by Quality Migrant Admission Scheme, combined with persistently strong local rigid demand for rentals, makes a significant decline in rents unlikely. The market forecasts that the rental index will fluctuate within a narrow range of 116 to 120 points in the short term, with a distinct possibility of challenging the historical peak of 118.54 points recorded in August 2019.

Regional Price Analysis: New Territories West Outperforms

This week, regional property price indices exhibited a "three rises, one fall" pattern. New Territories West demonstrated the strongest momentum, with the latest index at 116.21 points, up 1.00% week-on-week, reversing the previous week's decline. This rise is believed to be linked to a lack of large-scale primary project launches in the district this week. The market relied solely on sporadic transactions from previously launched projects such as Grand Mayfair III, resulting in the flow of the purchasing powers to secondary market and subsequently strengthening the bargaining power of vendors.

New Territories East also performed well, reporting 114.02 points, a week-on-week increase of 0.88%, marking seven consecutive weeks of gains. Sales of additional units at the new project Le Mont Phase 3 in the district were lackluster, and the sale of remaining units at Grand Seasons in LOHAS Park was average. This has indirectly strengthened the bargaining power of secondary market vendors in the district, reducing room for price negotiation and supporting upward price movement.

Hong Kong Island reported 100.72 points, up 0.35% week-on-week, rising for two consecutive weeks. The situation mirrors that of New Territories West; the district lacked a primary market focal point this week, relying on sporadic transactions from earlier launches like the Headland Residences. This has led to firmer asking prices from secondary owners and a narrowing of negotiation margins.

Conversely, property prices in Kowloon remained under pressure, with the latest index at 109.72 points, down 0.13% week-on-week, marking two consecutive weeks of decline. The district has seen wave after wave of new project launches. After the first batch of units at One Park Place sold out, the developer immediately released additional units at increased prices; however, the pricing remained attractive, putting short-term pressure on the secondary market in the same district. Owners have been forced to cut prices to compete for sales.

Furthermore, price increases for additional units at Soyo Square and Austin Bohemian, along with ideal sales of remaining stock at Haddon, continued to absorb market purchasing power, exerting pressure on the secondary market and compelling owners to reduce prices to enhance competitiveness. 

Looking ahead, the market widely expects another interest rate cut next month. Coupled with warming Sino-US relations, the intention to enter the market among buyers and enterprises continues to strengthen. Having breached the pre-"withdrawal of spicy measures" low of 110.92 points, the Eva Property Index (EPI) is expected to hover between 107 and 114 points. Property prices are anticipated to maintain a steady upward trend in the short term, with the cumulative rise for the full year estimated to be between 5% and 6%.

Rental Index Consolidates at 116.48 Points; Rate Cut Expectations May Slow Growth

Although the summer leasing peak has passed, and the upward momentum in Hong Kong rents has paused slightly, the overall trend remains at yearly highs. The newly released Eva Rental Index (ERI) shows the index ending last week's rally to report 116.48 points, a week-on-week retreat of 0.21%. Despite this minor adjustment, the current index is only 2.06 points, or approximately 1.74%, below the historical high of 118.54 points set in early August 2019. For the first 11 months of the year, the rental index has accumulated a rise of 2.47%.

Analyzing regional rental performance, the four major districts presented a "three falls, one unchanged" pattern this week, reflecting more obvious pressure on rents in urban areas. The Hong Kong Island rental index reported 123.25 points, down 0.79% week-on-week, ending the previous week's rise; Kowloon reported 119.09 points, down 0.48%; and New Territories East reported 119.80 points, down 0.33%. Only New Territories West remained resilient, with the index at 137.11 points, unchanged week-on-week, defying the broader market decline. Overall, while market rental trends show a slight adjustment, the decline is limited due to support from local rigid demand.

Regarding the future outlook, the market generally anticipates another interest rate cut in December. As mortgage interest costs decrease, the scenario where "buying is cheaper than renting" may re-emerge, prompting some tenants to consider shifting from renting to purchasing property. This is expected to cause a slight slowdown in short-term rental growth. However, under the government's active implementation of "talent snatching" policies, various talent introduction schemes continue to generate strong new housing demand for the Hong Kong property market. Rental demand is expected to remain high, supporting the consolidation of rental levels at high positions. The market estimates that the rental index will fluctuate narrowly between 116 and 120 points in the coming two months, with a chance of breaking through the historical high of 118.54 points.

These figures reflect market conditions from November 21 to November 27, 2025.